Q3 2024 GTA West: freestanding prices down 15% year-over-year while condo strata hits $488/SF. Sublease drops 2M SF. Rents stabilizing ahead of Q4.
Published October 5, 2025
Twenty-six freestanding industrial buildings changed hands across GTA West in Q3 2024 — nearly identical to the 24 sales recorded in the same period last year, and a modest pullback from the 32 transactions in Q2 2023.
The average price per square foot for freestanding buildings came in at $359 — down 15% from $424 a year ago and 22% below the $459 average recorded in Q3 2023. The directional trend is clear: freestanding pricing has softened meaningfully from its peak.
The condo and strata segment tells a different story. Average sale prices held at $488 per square foot, up 7% from last year's $456. The divergence between freestanding and strata pricing is one of the defining characteristics of the current GTA West market — and one that carries real implications depending on which side of a transaction you're on.
The market is showing more energy than it has in the past six months. Buyers who were sitting tight are stepping back in, and sellers are adjusting their expectations to meet them. As pricing expectations align and businesses come to terms with current economic conditions, more transactions are crossing the finish line.
A significant price correction from current levels is unlikely. The steady transaction volume points to a market finding its equilibrium, and pricing should hold through Q4. For sellers who have been waiting for conditions to improve, the window is opening.
The leasing story this quarter is defined by two converging forces: supply pulling back and demand beginning to stabilize.
Supply
Developer confidence has been low for eight consecutive quarters. Economic uncertainty combined with an excess of available space pushed rents down and discouraged new construction starts. Only 4.4 million square feet of industrial space is currently under construction across GTA West — the lowest level since early 2019. The pipeline has thinned considerably.
Demand
The construction slowdown is creating the conditions for demand to catch up. After two years of steady declines, rents are beginning to level off. The average asking rent this quarter was $16.84 per square foot, compared to $16.96 last quarter — a marginal decline that signals the rate of softening is slowing.
The most significant indicator this quarter: sublease availability dropped by 2 million square feet, the largest single-quarter decrease in over a decade. That kind of absorption is a genuine signal of tenant activity and improving market health.
Overall availability sits at 5.6% — consistent with where the market was a year ago.
For tenants who have been waiting for a more dramatic rent correction, the data suggests that window may be narrowing. The pace of decline is slowing, new supply is limited, and demand continues to improve. Rents are expected to hold steady through Q4 and begin climbing again within the following two to three quarters.
Landlords are currently in deal-making mode. The period between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 represents a meaningful window for tenants to secure space at favourable terms before the market dynamic shifts further in favour of landlords.
If you'd like to discuss what these conditions mean for your specific requirement, book a consultation below.
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The GTA market shifted fundamentally. Condo units now represent 63% of all transactions, Brampton dominated with 51% of sales activity, and leasing absorption hit its highest level since 2022.