GTA Industrial Market Report - Q4 2025

The GTA industrial market shifted in Q4 2025. Activity surged, but not in the way most observers expected. The quarter recorded the highest Q4 transaction count since 2022, consisting of 27 sales, yet the story behind that number looks nothing like the market of three years ago.

Sales: The Small Property Boom

The most important number from Q4 2025 is not the transaction count. It is the average deal size, which collapsed from $19 million in 2023 to just $6.8 million in Q4 2025. The market did not get more active because large investors came back. It got more active because small business owners rushed to buy strata and condo industrial units, drawn by accessible price points and the appeal of ownership without the commitment of a large freestanding acquisition.

The pricing divergence between asset classes is now significant. Compared to 2022, freestanding properties have declined 19% to $347 per square foot. Strata and condo units have gone the opposite direction, up 39% to $538 per square foot. These two asset classes are no longer moving together and treating them as interchangeable is a costly mistake for buyers and sellers alike.

Condo units now represent 63% of all transactions, up from 49% in 2022. Their total dollar volume nearly quadrupled in 2025. Freestanding sales activity is up in absolute terms but the buyer pool has narrowed and pricing pressure is real.

Brampton Is the Epicentre

Brampton recorded 65 transactions in Q4 2025, up from 11 in Q4 2024. That is 51% of the entire GTA market in a single quarter. The drivers are straightforward: more affordable land, active condo development, and concentrated demand from small business owners priced out of other submarkets. For buyers looking for inventory and sellers looking for liquidity, Brampton is where the action is.

What This Means

If you are a business owner looking to own your space, the condo market offers an accessible entry point with strong pricing momentum behind it. If you own a freestanding property, sales activity is recovering but you are selling into a market that has structurally shifted toward smaller, more affordable product. Pricing expectations need to reflect that reality.

Analysis based on 342 Q4 transactions from 2022 to 2025, representing $4.2 billion in total transaction volume.

Leasing: Big Tenants, Tight Space

While the sales market shifted toward smaller transactions, the leasing market moved in the opposite direction. Q4 2025 was defined by large tenants signing large deals, and the fundamentals underneath that activity are stronger than they appear on the surface.

Strong Absorption

GTA West absorbed 2.9 million square feet in Q4 2025, the highest quarterly figure since Q4 2022. This happened despite 2.4 million square feet of new supply entering the market in the same period. Vacancy held at 5.5%, a level that still favours landlords in most product categories.

3PL Companies Are Driving the Market

Third-party logistics companies dominated leasing activity in Q4. The five largest deals in GTA West totalled 2.5 million square feet. The three headline transactions were TD Synnex at 1.1 million square feet in Caledon, Speedy Transport at 440,000 square feet on renewal in Halton Hills, and Automann Heavy Duty at 333,000 square feet in Caledon. Caledon absorbed two of the three largest deals in the submarket and is consolidating its position as the GTA's primary 3PL hub.

For tenants in distribution and logistics, particularly those requiring 100,000 square feet or more, the message is clear: this segment is active and landlords are competing for quality tenants.

Where the Market Is Tight and Where It Is Not

Mississauga West recorded 1.1 million square feet of absorption at 0.9% vacancy, the tightest submarket in GTA West by a considerable margin. Brampton West and Oakville both recorded solid absorption. Milton is the outlier, sitting at 11.2% vacancy, which creates a real opportunity for tenants willing to look slightly outside the core submarkets.

Tenant-Friendly Pricing

Asking rents declined to $16.89 per square foot, down 6.2% year-over-year. Private landlords in particular have flexibility that institutional owners do not, as they are not managing to fixed return targets. For tenants who have been waiting for the right moment to negotiate, Q4 2025 into Q1 2026 represents that window. Sublet availability has declined by 2 million square feet over the past two quarters, which historically precedes upward pressure on direct asking rents.

The 2026 outlook is constructive. Momentum from Q4 is expected to carry into the new year. Tenants who act now are negotiating from a position of strength that may not persist through 2026.

If you'd like to discuss what these conditions mean for your specific requirement, book a consultation below.